# Probable

> Where conviction meets probability. A prediction market for private company valuations and startup milestones.

Probable is a prediction market platform where users trade binary YES/NO contracts tied to real startup events — funding rounds, product launches, revenue targets, and IPO timelines. Prices reflect the crowd's estimated probability of each outcome.

## Core Features

- **Prediction Markets**: Binary contracts on startup milestones with real-money trading
- **NORTHSTAR 30 Index**: Curated universe of the 30 most important private companies, tracked and priced monthly
- **AI-Powered Debates**: Multi-agent debate system (bull/bear/neutral) analysing each company
- **Market Maker Network**: Professional and algorithmic market makers providing liquidity
- **Research Reports**: AI-generated company research with valuation analysis
- **Sentiment Markets**: Monthly sentiment-based prediction cycles with automated resolution

## Public Pages

- Homepage: https://probable.fusion-42.com/
- Markets: https://probable.fusion-42.com/valuations
- Companies: https://probable.fusion-42.com/companies
- Debates: https://probable.fusion-42.com/debates
- Leaderboard: https://probable.fusion-42.com/leaderboard
- Sentiment: https://probable.fusion-42.com/sentiment
- Market Makers: https://probable.fusion-42.com/market-makers
- Resolution Methodology: https://probable.fusion-42.com/resolution-methodology
- Resolutions: https://probable.fusion-42.com/resolutions
- NORTHSTAR Dashboard: https://probable.fusion-42.com/northstar/dashboard

## How It Works

1. Markets are generated by AI agents analysing startup funding events and sector trends
2. Each market has clear resolution criteria defined upfront
3. Users buy YES or NO shares at prices between $0.01 and $0.99
4. The price represents implied probability (e.g., $0.70 = 70% chance)
5. Markets resolve based on publicly verifiable information
6. YES outcome pays $1.00 per share; NO outcome pays $0.00

## Trading

- Price-time priority order book matching
- Full escrow collateralisation (every contract backed 1:1)
- Market maker quotes providing continuous liquidity
- Real-time probability updates from news and trading activity

## Company Coverage

Probable covers high-growth private companies across sectors including AI/ML, fintech, enterprise SaaS, biotech, space, crypto, and consumer technology.

## Contact

- Website: https://probable.fusion-42.com
- X/Twitter: @probablef42

## Optional

- llms-full.txt: https://probable.fusion-42.com/llms-full.txt